By studying the dementia incidence rate since 2008, a UCL-led study has found that up to 1.7 million people could be living with dementia in England and Wales by 2040.
Previous studies, based on data up to 2010, found that dementia incidence had declined in high income countries.
However, the UCL research has revealed that dementia incidence increased in England and Wales after 2008.
By studying the upward incidence trend, the researchers have projected that the number of people living with dementia in England and Wales will be over 40% more than previously forecast.
Dementia incidence increased by 25.2% between 2008 and 2016
Previous research in England and Wales estimated that the number of people living with dementia would increase by 57% from 0.77 million in 2016 to 1.2 million in 2040.
However, new research has shown that the figure could be as high as 1.7 million.
The team examined nine waves of data from people over the age of 50 and living in private households in England between 2002 and 2019, from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.
They discovered that the dementia incidence rate decreased by 28.8% between 2002 and 2008. However, between 2008 and 2016, dementia incidence increased by 25.2%.
Disparities in the rate of dementia incidence between education groups
The team found a similar non-linear pattern across subgroups of age, sex, and education attainment.
Notably, the team found that disparities in the rate of dementia incidence were increasing between education groups. The researchers discovered that there was both a slower decline between 2002 and 2008 and a faster increase after 2008 in participants with lower education attainment.
If the incidence rate continues to increase at the speed between 2008 to 2016, it is estimated that the number of people with dementia in 2040 will double the amount in 2023. This compares to an estimated one million people if dementia rates continued declining.
Lead author, Dr Yuntao Chen (UCL Institute of Epidemiology & Health Care), said: “It is shocking to think that the number of people living with dementia by 2040 may be up to 70% higher than if dementia incidence had continued to decline.
“Not only will this have a devastating effect on the lives of those involved but it will also put a considerably larger burden on health and social care than current forecasts predict.
“Continued monitoring of the incidence trend will be crucial in shaping social care policy.”
The rate of dementia onset within older age groups is increasing
Although an increase in dementia cases has often been attributed to an ageing population, the team also found that the rate of dementia onset within older age groups is also increasing.
Principal investigator, Professor Eric Brunner (UCL Institute of Epidemiology & Health Care), said: “Our research has exposed that dementia is likely to be a more urgent policy problem than previously recognised – even if the current trend continues for just a few years.
“We have found that not only is the ageing population a major driver of the trend in England and Wales but also the number of people developing dementia within older age groups is increasing.
“We don’t know how long this pattern will continue but the UK needs to be prepared so we can ensure that everyone affected, whatever their financial circumstances, is able to access the help and support that they need.”
